RESULT AND IMPACT INDICATORS
The activities of the project contributed to the results related to the “monitoring and control” component (2) of the Amazon Fund’s Logical Framework.
Direct effect 2.1: Military Fire Department of Pará (CBMPA) better structured for monitoring and combating deforestation caused by forest fires and unauthorized burnings
The main indicators established for monitoring this objective were:
- Number of CBMPA managers trained in postgraduate courses in Environmental Management and Safety effectively using the acquired knowledge (outcome indicator)
Goal: 20 | Result achieved: 13
- Number of hot spots (outcome indicator)
Goal: not defined | Result achieved: 30,166
In 2019, there were 30,166 hot spots in the state of Pará¹. As a baseline of this indicator, 50,516 hot spots were recorded, calculated based on the average corresponding to the period from 2004 to 2013 (ten years prior to 2014, first year of project implementation². Thus, during the execution period of the project, the number of hot spots in the state of Pará was reduced by 40%.
It is important to note that the increase or reduction in the number of hot spots in the state of Pará are also influenced by meteorological issues, varying much from one year to the next depending on the length of the dry periods. Given this context, the on screen indicator is insufficient to measure the outcome of the project supported by the Amazon Fund, although being a favorable sign and a reference for evaluating the other indicators of the project.
Hot spots in the state of Pará
|
Baseline
(Average 2004 to 2013)
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
50,516
|
35,526
|
43,164
|
29,724
|
49,770
|
22,080
|
30,166
|
Source: Elaborated by the authors based on information from INPE’s Forest Burnings Database.
- Number of forest fires or unauthorized burnings controlled directly by CBMPA (outcome indicator)
Goal: not defined | Result achieved: 2,401
During 2017, 2,401 forest fires and unauthorized burnings were controlled, whereas 596 forest fires or burnings were contained in 2013 (baseline of the project), showing an increase of more than four times in the capacity to combat forest fires and burnings. This variation highlights the increase in the corporation’s response capacity, due to the project’s intervention, which shows that, since the start of the project developed with the Amazon Fund, Pará’s firefighters have been expanding their performance in combating forest fires.
Number of forest fires or unauthorized burnings controlled directly by CBMPA
|
Baseline (2013)
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
596
|
1,254
|
2,835
|
1,606
|
2,401
|
Source: Elaborated by the authors based on information from the Military Fire Department of the state of Pará (CBMPA).
- Annual deforestation in the state of Pará
Goal: not defined | Verified value: 3,862 km2
The annual clear-cut deforestation in 2019 in the state of Pará was 3,862km2, corresponding to about 40% of the deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon that year. Considering that in 2013 this rate had been 2,346km2 (baseline), there was an increase of approximately 65% in the annual deforestation rate in the period from 2013 to 2019.
Annual deforestation in the state of Pará (km2)
|
Baseline (2013)
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2,346
|
1,887
|
2,153
|
2,992
|
2,433
|
2,744
|
3,862
|
Source: Elaborated by the author based on Inpe/Prodes data.
Institutional and administrative aspects
The project “Pará against forest fires and unauthorized burnings,” in addition to the operational structuring of CBMPA for combating forest fires, aimed at promoting integrated and articulated management between state and federal public policies, dedicated to ordering, monitoring, preventing and combating these fires, as well as to develop and disseminate techniques for controlled fire management, to train human resources to disseminate these techniques and to raise awareness for the risks of inappropriate fire use.
The project strongly supported the structuring of the state of Pará to combat forest fires, and the organization of the Regional Center for Monitoring, Environmental Prevention and Disasters (CRMPAD), which works as a center for managing critical situations and subsidizes decision-making by the CBMPA.
However, the project lacked the same success in the planned actions of institutional articulation with the municipalities to prevent and combat forest fires and to train the rural population to change their culture of using fire in the region’s agricultural production. Throughout the execution of the project, these activities were replaced, at CBMPA’s request, by others that prioritized the direct control of forest fires and burnings.
Despite the relevance of the substitute counterpart activities carried out, actions aimed at institutional articulation and forest fire prevention ended up being neglected, to the detriment, therefore, of the search for medium and long-term results that would have been achieved throught a change in the region’s culture of fire use.
Risks and lessons learned
Overall, it can be said that the project has developed satisfactorily after the partial review of its scope, having performed the planned activities and achieved good results. Particulary, the indicator “number of forest fires or unauthorized burnings controlled directly by CBMPA” showed favorable developments throughout the project, having quadrupled the number of fires controlled by CBMPA annually.
However, the project did not contribute as planned to the structuring of new Municipal Civil Defense Coordinators (which are bodies constituted by the municipalities) and Community Civil Defense Centers (which are voluntary structures formed by community members), which aim, among other objectives, at promoting community awareness for preventing forest fires and identifying burning outbreaks. The project also did not support as planned the training activities for farmers in controlled burning techniques, aiming at changing the region’s culture of fire use.
For a project, thus, it is not enough to simply envision actions to promote institutional articulation and to include interventions for preventing forest fires and unauthorized burningg. It is necessary to ensure the allocation of specific resources to these activities, as well as the adoption of mechanisms that guarantee their execution.
Sustainability of results
The long-term sustainability of the results achieved with the support of the Amazon Fund, given the nature of this project, depends mainly on the budgetary conditions of the state of Pará, which is responsible for maintaining the main equipment acquired under the project, as well as providing CBMPA’s costing resources.
It is worth mentioning that the training and qualifications of military firefighters in the state of Pará, carried out by the project, tend to produce long-lasting and extended effects, considering the diffusion of knowledge that naturally occurs in organizations and requires no new contributions of resources.
It should be noted that the project “Pará against forest fires and unauthorized burnings” joined other projects by military fire departments (CBM) in the states of the Brazilian Amazon (Acre, Mato Grosso, Rondônia and Tocantins), and the project “Prevfogo - Ibama,” all implemented with support from the Amazon Fund³.
Finally, despite the progress already made with the support of the Amazon Fund, it remains to further expand CBMPA’s response capacity, so that it is structured to carry out actions to verify the nature of the hot spots found, by the monitoring systems and by being adequately equipped, with human and material resources, to combat all identified forest fires and unauthorized burnings.
² The baseline of this indicator was defined as an average of the years prior to the implementation of the project because the occurrence of hot spots varies significantly due to climate changes. In other words, some years show a substantial increase in the number of hot spots, not as a result of direct human action but from climatic events, such as the atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon known as “El Niño.” Using an average of years allows, therefore, to mitigate those years with atypical variations.
³ Both the “Rondônia Mais Verde” (CBMRO) project and the “Prevfogo / Ibama” project are still under execution.